From the Observation Deck ...

The Belmont Stakes- Saturday June 5, 2010

Many of the twelve colts in this field have been training especially for the Belmont, and four or five months ago many trainers used 1 1/8-mile contests at Gulfstream as prep races. Some colts were entered just after their maiden victories. Most amazing was one trainer's immediate placement of Game on Dude (#8) into the Grade I Florida Derby. That move cost him his job. Now Bob Baffert is the trainer. Interestingly, one of the primary contenders in the Belmont has not yet won a race since breaking his maiden. And over the past 25 years or so, it has happened only two or three times. So this would make a victory by First Dude (#11) that much sweeter.

As it has been for the past few years, winners in the "classics" have been limited to those capable of running on the dirt. The plastic surfaces have all but killed the chances for most from the West Coast unless they have already demonstrated an ability to perform on dirt. Dave in Dixie (#1) is a good example. Another might be Interactif (#12). He has the capability of running well on plastic or on the grass, but moving to the Belmont surface could be a challenge. Todd Pletcher, a very good trainer, has been working his colt actively at both Churchill Downs and Belmont since his last race on April 10. So, given his judgment, we must consider Interactif a possible upset choice. But, based on recent experiences, the odds are still very much against him.

In terms of pace and the ability to run with it, WATT is suggesting that the primary contenders in this contest are Fly Down (#5), Ice Box (#6), First Dude (#11) and perhaps Drosselmeyer (#7). The pacesetters are expected to be #11, #8, and #2 in approximately 2:04.4 - a Pole Speed of about 70. Unless the early going is much slower than expected, Fly Down and Ice Box will most likely be coming from off the pace.

It appears that First Dude could have a pace advantage in this race if a speed duel - like he saw in the Preakness - can be prevented. So far, he has been unable to get the job done. But this time, he might.

So, make it First Dude (#11), Drosselmeyer (#7), Ice Box (#6), and Fly Down (#5). Moreover, it would not be a surprise to see the exacta, and maybe even the trifecta, among these four!

Results:

That was a good one!

As expected, First Dude (#11) set the pace, followed closely by Interactif (#12). Drosselmeyer (#7) and Fly Down (#5) were also in contention throughout . However, #12 faded and finished seventh.

The three colts battled late in the stretch and First Dude finally gave in to the other two, but gamely held on for show. Ice Box (#6) had a poor start and found it impossible to recover. Bob Baffert has good reason to be pleased - Game on Dude ran a credible fourth.

Drosselmeyer paid $28.00 to win, $11.60 to place, and $7.70 to show. The 7-5 exacta with Fly Down returned $144.50. Best of all, the 7-5-11 trifecta including First Dude paid a nifty $766.00 for a $2 ticket.

The free WATT race file can be downloaded from this site.

Now we can look forward to a good Saratoga meet...

                                                                         Jeff Little, Publisher

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Recently we received a letter saying this about Winning at the Track:

It's the best program I've ever seen and a lot better than the other stuff available on the net.

May, 2009
R.V.N., Austin, Texas                    

Here is one of the better payoffs that I've seen lately.  It isn't every day that my key horse pays $41.80 to win.  This occurred at Calder on May 5, 2008.

4th Race - #2 Red Hot Romance  (Top PM-rated horse)    10 - 1 Morning Line
   $41.80 win     $16.40 place     $9.80 show

            Jeff Little, Publisher                     

Below are two of the more extraordinary e-mails I've received recently.  Great performances such as these are, of course, outside of the norm, but I thought I'd share them with you anyway ...  These unsolicited notes are for real.

Subject:  Big Payoffs at Hollywood
Date:  Tue, 11 Dec 2007  11:37 EDT
From:  YYY@netzero.net

To: JBLittle@BellSouth.net

Jeff:

If you are looking for a free advertisement for the  Winning at the Track program you need to look no further than Hollywood Park on 12-9-07. Using the Best-4 PM ratings in each race your program  nailed a cold exacta in the 7th that paid $721.00 for a $1.00 exacta. The winner paid $110.00 to win and was the top PM choice in that race with 30:1 morning line odds.

While meager in comparison, the program also had an exacta box with the top two PM choices in the 3rd race that paid $111.00 for a $1.00 exacta.  This was despite a 7 horse field.    WOW !!!!    

Terry YYY

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Subject:  MNR 8-14
Date:  Tue, 15 Aug 2006  26:13 EDT
From:  XXX@aol.com

Tom XXX

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